Scientists are launching a unique experiment at Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano off the coast of Oregon, to develop reliable, real-time eruption forecasts. Current volcano prediction relies heavily on retrospective analysis, which can introduce biases and hinder accurate foresight. This new approach aims to overcome these limitations by rigorously testing physics-based forecasting models before eruptions occur.
The Problem with Current Predictions
Volcano eruption predictions are notoriously difficult. Retrospective studies, while valuable for learning from past events, often suffer from “data snooping” – unconsciously adjusting interpretations to fit known outcomes. This experiment seeks to eliminate such biases by establishing a transparent, reproducible forecasting process.
A Bias-Proof Design
The core of the experiment involves monthly forecasts for Axial Seamount, a well-monitored volcano with a history of eruptions in 1998, 2011, and 2015. These forecasts will be cryptographically “hashed” and archived before release, ensuring their integrity and preventing later modification. A “meta-document” detailing methods and datasets will be publicly archived alongside each forecast version.
The researchers will release all forecasts, regardless of accuracy, to demonstrate full transparency. This eliminates the possibility of selective reporting, as each prediction is permanently timestamped and publicly accessible. Following an actual eruption, the predictions will be assessed, and the model iteratively improved.
Why Axial Seamount?
Axial Seamount is ideal for this experiment due to its high level of monitoring. A network of seafloor pressure recorders and seismometers constantly track uplift and earthquake activity, providing a rich geophysical dataset. The site’s activity also allows for frequent testing and refinement of forecasting models.
Current Predictions and Shifts in Timing
The latest analysis suggests a shift in the predicted eruption timing. While initially expected in 2025, the researchers now estimate mid to late 2026 is more likely, based on a slowing of measured seafloor uplift. Despite this slowdown, inflation rates remain higher than those preceding the 2015 eruption.
The Goal Beyond Prediction
This experiment isn’t solely about accurately predicting the next Axial Seamount eruption. The primary goal is to develop more robust, physics-based forecasting tools while fostering public trust in scientific predictions. Accurate eruption forecasts could significantly improve hazard preparedness for coastal communities and marine operations.
The researchers, Bill Chadwick (Oregon State University) and Scott Nooner (University of North Carolina at Wilmington), are documenting the experiment’s progress on their blog. This approach emphasizes transparency and accountability in the scientific process.
“The hope for this experiment is not so much to accurately predict the Axial Seamount eruption this time around, as it is to inform the development of more robust, physics-based forecasting tools.”
The experiment represents a crucial step towards more reliable volcano prediction, moving beyond retrospective analysis to a proactive, verifiable forecasting framework
